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दक्षिण-पश्चिम मानसून के दौरान पूरे देश में सामान्य से अधिक बारिश होने की संभावना

16 April 2024
Praja Today
177 Comments

@ नई दिल्ली

पृथ्वी विज्ञान मंत्रालय के सचिव डॉ. एम. रविचंद्रन ने मीडिया को बताया कि जून से सितंबर 2024 में दक्षिण पश्चिम मानसून के दौरान पूरे देश में सामान्य से अधिक वर्षा होने की संभावना है।

नई दिल्ली के नेशनल मीडिया सेंटर में आयोजित एक प्रेस कॉन्फ्रेंस में मीडिया को 2024 दक्षिण-पश्चिम मॉनसून सीजन की बारिश के बारे में जानकारी देते हुए उन्होंने कहा कि ± 5% की मॉडल त्रुटि के साथ इसके लंबी अवधि के औसत (एलपीए) का 106 प्रतिशत रहने की संभावना है। 1971-2020 के आंकड़ों के आधार पर पूरे देश में मानसून सीज़न की बारिश का एलपीए 87 सेमी है।

पृथ्वी विज्ञान मंत्रालय के सचिव डॉ. एम रविचंद्रन

डॉ. रविचंद्रन ने कहा, पूर्वानुमान गतिशील और सांख्यिकीय दोनों मॉडल पर आधारित है, और उत्तर-पश्चिम, पूर्व और पूर्वोत्तर भारत के कुछ क्षेत्रों को छोड़कर, जहां सामान्य से कम बारिश होने की संभावना है, देश के अधिकांश हिस्सों में सामान्य से अधिक बारिश होने की संभावना दिखाते  हैं। उन्होंने मीडिया को बताया कि अपेक्षित ला नीना, सकारात्मक आईओडी और उत्तरी गोलार्द्ध में सामान्य से कम बर्फ का आवरण दक्षिण पश्चिम मानसून 2024 सीजन के दौरान वर्षा के लिए अनुकूल होगा।

एक विस्तृत प्रस्तुति देते हुए महानिदेशक, आईएमडी, डॉ. मृत्युंजय महापात्र ने कहा कि वर्तमान में, भूमध्यरेखीय प्रशांत क्षेत्र में मध्यम अल नीनो प्रभाव की स्थिति बनी हुई है और जलवायु मॉडल के पूर्वानुमान मानसून सीजन के शुरुआत तक तटस्थ और मानसून के दूसरे भाग में ला नीना के प्रभाव का संकेत देते हैं। .

भारतीय मौसम विज्ञान विभाग के महानिदेशक डॉ. एम. महापात्र

उन्होंने मीडिया को यह भी बताया कि वर्तमान में तटस्थ हिंद महासागर द्विध्रुवीय स्थिति प्रचलित है और जलवायु मॉडल पूर्वानुमान से संकेत मिलता है कि मानसून के दौरान इसके सकारात्मक रूप से विकसित होने की संभावना है।

उन्होंने कहा कि प्रशांत और हिंद महासागर में समुद्र की सतह का तापमान चूंकि भारतीय मानसून पर एक मजबूत प्रभाव डालता है, इसलिए आईएमडी समुद्र की सतह की स्थिति के बदलाव की सावधानीपूर्वक निगरानी कर रहा है।

डॉ. महापात्र ने आगे कहा कि पिछले तीन महीनों (जनवरी से मार्च 2024) के दौरान उत्तरी गोलार्द्ध में बर्फ का आवरण सामान्य से नीचे था, जो इस मानसून में अधिक वर्षा को दर्शाता है। सर्दी और वसंत में उत्तरी गोलार्द्ध के साथ-साथ यूरेशिया पर भी बर्फ कवर सीमा का आम तौर पर बाद के मानसून की वर्षा के साथ विपरीत संबंध है। उन्होंने कहा, आईएमडी मई 2024 के अंतिम सप्ताह में मानसून की बारिश का अद्यतन पूर्वानुमान जारी करेगा।

मानसून (जून–सितंबर), 2024 के लिए संभाव्य वर्षा पूर्वानुमान

वर्ष 2003 से भारत मौसम विभाग (आईएमडी) पूरे देश में दो चरणों में दक्षिण-पश्चिम मानसून (जून-सितम्बर) की औसत वर्षा के लिए प्रचालनात्मक दीर्घावधि पूर्वानुमान (एलआरएफ) जारी करता रहा है। पहले चरण का पूर्वानुमान अप्रैल में जारी किया जाता है और दूसरा चरण या अद्यतन पूर्वानुमान मई के अंत तक जारी किया जाता है। वर्ष 2021 से आईएमडी ने मौजूदा दो चरण की पूर्वानुमान रणनीति को संशोधित करके देश भर में दक्षिण-पश्चिम मानसून वर्षा के लिए मासिक और मौसमी परिचालन पूर्वानुमान जारी करने की एक नई रणनीति लागू की है। नई रणनीति गतिशील और सांख्यिकीय पूर्वानुमान प्रणाली दोनों का उपयोग करती है। आईएमडी के मानसून मिशन जलवायु पूर्वानुमान प्रणाली सहित विभिन्न वैश्विक जलवायु पूर्वानुमान केंद्रों से युग्मित वैश्विक जलवायु मॉडल पर आधारित मल्टी-मॉडल एन्सेम्बल पूर्वानुमान प्रणाली का उपयोग गतिशील पूर्वानुमान प्रणाली में किया जाता है.

उपर्युक्त पूर्वानुमानों के क्रम में, अगले एक महीने के लिए मासिक वर्षा पूर्वानुमान क्रमशः जून, जुलाई और अगस्त के अंत में जारी किए जाते हैं। इसके अतिरिक्त, समग्र रूप से देश के लिए मात्रात्मक और संभाव्य पूर्वानुमान तथा मौसम के उत्तरार्ध (अगस्त-सितम्बर) के लिए वर्षा के संभाव्य पूर्वानुमानों का स्थानिक वितरण अगस्त के पूर्वानुमान के साथ जुलाई के अंत के आसपास जारी किया जाता है।

दक्षिण–पश्चिम मानसून सीजन, 2024 के दौरान वर्षा के पूर्वानुमान का सारांश इस प्रकार है:

  • मानसून (जून से सितंबर) के दौरान पूरे देश में सामान्य से अधिक वर्षा होने की संभावना है (>106% लंबी अवधि का औसत)
  • मात्रात्मक रूप से पूरे देश में ऋतुकालिक वर्षा 5% ± की मॉडल त्रुटि के साथ एलपीए का 106% रहने की संभावना है।
  • 1971-2020 के आंकड़ों के आधार पर पूरे देश में सीजन की बारिश का एलपीए 87 सेमी है।
  • वर्तमान में, भूमध्यरेखीय प्रशांत क्षेत्र में मध्यम अल नीनो की स्थिति बनी हुई है। जलवायु मॉडल के पूर्वानुमान मानसून के मौसम की शुरुआत तक अल नीनो की तटस्थ स्थिति और मानसून के उतरार्द्ध के दौरान ला नीना की स्थिति का संकेत देते हैं।
  • वर्तमान में, तटस्थ हिंद महासागर द्विध्रुव (आईओडी) स्थितियां कायम हैं। जलवायु मॉडल के पूर्वानुमानों से संकेत मिलता है कि मानसून के मौसम के दौरान सकारात्मक आईओडी स्थितियां विकसित होने की संभावना है।
  • पिछले तीन महीनों (जनवरी से मार्च 2024) के दौरान उत्तरी गोलार्द्ध में बर्फ का आवरण सामान्य से कम था। उत्तरी गोलार्द्ध के साथ-साथ यूरेशिया में सर्दियों और वसंत ऋतु में बर्फ के आवरण की सीमा का आम तौर पर बाद के मानसून के मौसम की वर्षा के साथ विपरीत संबंध होता है।
  • आईएमडी मई 2024 के अंतिम सप्ताह में मानसून सीजन की बारिश के लिए अद्यतन पूर्वानुमान जारी करेगा।

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